* Key to interpreting this plot: Each 8.5 - 16 day forecast is plotted with every 12-hour forecast AO phase value as an open circle. The solid thick blue line is the actual or analyzed AO from the NCEP CFSR or CDASv2 reanalysis. Thus, the error is the distance from each forecast dot to the analyzed blue line. The bias comes in from seeing the clustering of dots either above or below the analyzed line. The last 8-forecasts are color-coded with the slightly larger black bubbles as the most current NCEP GFS deterministic model run.

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Count since September 1, 2011